The greatest case of shooting the messenger in recent history

There are a few, including Joe Kernen (CNBC host) who are upset because the S&P gave an opinion and lowered the credit rating of the U.S.A... Joe’s reaction to the report is a personal boycott of speaking S&P’s name; he has vowed not to speak the name of the company who gave an opinion, as if it were Lord Voldemort. What a child, anyway, Joe is a solid example of how our society and our self-titled leaders live in an imaginary world free of consequences, you buy a house with a payment equal to your take home pay but it is not your fault you can’t make the payment every month, then you and your congress person blame the mortgage broker, the broker blames the bank, the bank blames the investment bank, the investment bank blames Fannie and Freddie, they blame the congress who created Fannie and Freddie and the cycle is complete. This lack of responsibility is personified by the belief of congress and the president that decades of spending in excess of this countries tax receipt should have no impact, on anything, “don’t worry my grandkids will pick up the slack” (Both parties buying votes IMO but that is a different rant). Total debt has increase with every congress and president since Truman. I am talking about total debt not the nebulous number the spinsters in congress talk about like the rate of increase of Debt to GDP. Government love to talk about the “rate of increase” because the rate of increase can go down if GDP grows at a faster rate than congress issues new debt. Plus this is how Congress makes cuts to the budget they cut the rate of growth of spending and that somehow is called a cut. .. Enough venting I have to get to work

Fight the good fight.

Sell in May and Go AWAY!!!

You may have seen this on The Big Picture.com. Did you notice 18 of 24 ending dates are on or before the end of May. Does it support the sell in May and go away theory? Also everyone of the periods are in the 1930's so the data is a little weak but it is the weekend

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/102-week-rolling-returns/

Poop Floats
Daniel Plainview
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Wind Sock 2

This wind sock remains long. Some stuff got called but still long, working back into names with more room to run. Maybe the budget battle will be catalyst for a pull back then I can lever up on the ride to 1400 on the S&P 500. Could be the drugs talking.

Charlie Sheen you later
Daniel Plainview

Yes I am a little late

Third Avenue Value

This Shareholder letter is an interesting read

TAM Shareholder Letter

A team and a man who don't buy into MPT.

Questions If you think mean reversion works can you believe in random walk? Because the random walk formula has an undefined mean? (0/0) Nothing to revert too.

Happy Hump day
Daniel Plainview

Wind Sock

In relating to this market, I now have the intestinal fortitude of a Wind Sock ?

More to follow.

drifting in the wind
Daniel Plainview

More macro: Is it Egypt?

My thoughts … yes these are my thoughts.
Anyway, Is Egypt the reason the market is down? I believe the answer is yes.

Here is why, the market has been climbing higher and higher without many or even a significant stumble since March of 2009 and it has been even more dramatic since November 2010. I believe we are witnessing a case of the “Fingers if Instability” (I took it from Mauldin). It is more a matter of timing in this case than an absolute cause. As explained in the Mauldin article; the scenario plays out as if you are building a hill of sand one grain at a time. With every grain you add the possibility of collapse and magnitude of the collapse increase. The challenge is when does the collapse happen? There is no constant point signaling a collapse, or the size of the collapse, the collapse just happens, it looks to be a random event. No matter how comfortable we are we as investors have to remember there will always be a collapse and the longer it has been since the last collapse the greater chance of the collapse being significant. Egypt just happened to be the last grain of sand.

Market Neutral
Daniel Plainview