More macro: Is it Egypt?

My thoughts … yes these are my thoughts.
Anyway, Is Egypt the reason the market is down? I believe the answer is yes.

Here is why, the market has been climbing higher and higher without many or even a significant stumble since March of 2009 and it has been even more dramatic since November 2010. I believe we are witnessing a case of the “Fingers if Instability” (I took it from Mauldin). It is more a matter of timing in this case than an absolute cause. As explained in the Mauldin article; the scenario plays out as if you are building a hill of sand one grain at a time. With every grain you add the possibility of collapse and magnitude of the collapse increase. The challenge is when does the collapse happen? There is no constant point signaling a collapse, or the size of the collapse, the collapse just happens, it looks to be a random event. No matter how comfortable we are we as investors have to remember there will always be a collapse and the longer it has been since the last collapse the greater chance of the collapse being significant. Egypt just happened to be the last grain of sand.

Market Neutral
Daniel Plainview