In relating to this market, I now have the intestinal fortitude of a Wind Sock ?
More to follow.
drifting in the wind
Daniel Plainview
Monday, January 31, 2011
Friday, January 28, 2011
More macro: Is it Egypt?
My thoughts … yes these are my thoughts.
Anyway, Is Egypt the reason the market is down? I believe the answer is yes.
Here is why, the market has been climbing higher and higher without many or even a significant stumble since March of 2009 and it has been even more dramatic since November 2010. I believe we are witnessing a case of the “Fingers if Instability” (I took it from Mauldin). It is more a matter of timing in this case than an absolute cause. As explained in the Mauldin article; the scenario plays out as if you are building a hill of sand one grain at a time. With every grain you add the possibility of collapse and magnitude of the collapse increase. The challenge is when does the collapse happen? There is no constant point signaling a collapse, or the size of the collapse, the collapse just happens, it looks to be a random event. No matter how comfortable we are we as investors have to remember there will always be a collapse and the longer it has been since the last collapse the greater chance of the collapse being significant. Egypt just happened to be the last grain of sand.
Market Neutral
Daniel Plainview
My thoughts … yes these are my thoughts.
Anyway, Is Egypt the reason the market is down? I believe the answer is yes.
Here is why, the market has been climbing higher and higher without many or even a significant stumble since March of 2009 and it has been even more dramatic since November 2010. I believe we are witnessing a case of the “Fingers if Instability” (I took it from Mauldin). It is more a matter of timing in this case than an absolute cause. As explained in the Mauldin article; the scenario plays out as if you are building a hill of sand one grain at a time. With every grain you add the possibility of collapse and magnitude of the collapse increase. The challenge is when does the collapse happen? There is no constant point signaling a collapse, or the size of the collapse, the collapse just happens, it looks to be a random event. No matter how comfortable we are we as investors have to remember there will always be a collapse and the longer it has been since the last collapse the greater chance of the collapse being significant. Egypt just happened to be the last grain of sand.
Market Neutral
Daniel Plainview
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
CASE BY CASE
So case by case means what?
"Applications for waivers from annual limit requirements are reviewed on a case by case basis by Department officials who look at a series of factors including (but not limited to) whether or not a premium increase is large or if a significant number of enrollees would lose access to their current plan because the coverage would not be offered in the absence of a waiver."
My comment is in bold.
My list of possible additional factors:
1. Have you harassed a TSA agent?
2. Have you expressed a negative opinion about the administration?
3. Do you own a gun?
4. Have you adopted a green lifestyle? (Unless your Al Gore than you don't need to actually live green just talk about doing it, that's enough)
5. Did you make a substantial contribution to a political campaign? (One way helps your chances, the other way not so much)
Daniel Plainview
"Applications for waivers from annual limit requirements are reviewed on a case by case basis by Department officials who look at a series of factors including (but not limited to) whether or not a premium increase is large or if a significant number of enrollees would lose access to their current plan because the coverage would not be offered in the absence of a waiver."
My comment is in bold.
My list of possible additional factors:
1. Have you harassed a TSA agent?
2. Have you expressed a negative opinion about the administration?
3. Do you own a gun?
4. Have you adopted a green lifestyle? (Unless your Al Gore than you don't need to actually live green just talk about doing it, that's enough)
5. Did you make a substantial contribution to a political campaign? (One way helps your chances, the other way not so much)
Daniel Plainview
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Brave new world,
I listen to too many conference calls and there are 2 phrases nearing over use.
1. Muddle through- this tells me one thing, There are a large number of people reading John Mauldin, not much else
2. The New Normal- enough said—when you have a trillion dollars people will repeat your fodder.
Go long or go home
Daniel Plainview
I listen to too many conference calls and there are 2 phrases nearing over use.
1. Muddle through- this tells me one thing, There are a large number of people reading John Mauldin, not much else
2. The New Normal- enough said—when you have a trillion dollars people will repeat your fodder.
Go long or go home
Daniel Plainview
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